Egypt: The Counter-Revolution

Dear friends,

Now that February 18 has come and gone, and millions of Egyptians took to the streets again to celebrate the ouster of Mubarak and to declare the continuation of the January 25 revolution until the second major objective, the downfall of Mubarak's regime, is achieved, it is time to take stock of where Egypt is today and going forward.

For every successful revolution, there is always the possibility of a counter-revolution.  Loyalists of a deposed dictator, his cronies and beneficiaries rise to recover their turf, their control and their dominance over a nation.  One recalls the 1953 Iranian coup d'état, overthrowing the 1951 democratically elected government of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.

In Egypt's case, plans for such a counter-revolution need not necessarily include the restoration of Mubarak to power.  A counter-revolution would be successful if it maintained the status quo and provided for the continuation of the Mubarak regime in any way, shape or form.  Those who were in charge want to regroup and make a comeback.

The below analysis is gleaned from multiple accounts emanating from Egyptian friends, in Egypt and abroad.  We have considered and observed the various manoeuvres, actions, steps and words over the last couple of weeks in Egypt.  While no one can be certain how the state of affairs in Egypt will shape out over the next months, a host of scenarios are indeed possible.  It is important to consider the risk of a counter-revolution materializing.

If we were to reach the conclusion that a counter-revolution is not possible or likely, so be it.  But, if we as individuals or groups were to determine that a counter-revolution is taking place in Egypt, depending on where we stand, we can take necessary actions to prevent or stop it.  The obvious reason here is to safeguard the January 25 revolution of the Egyptian people, a revolution earned with a historic effort by all accounts, a revolution with the potential of affording the Egyptian people with peace, freedom and an ever-improving standard of living.

After getting rid of Mubarak, the people's second and most crucial demand is to rid Egypt of the Mubarak regime in its entirety.  It stands to reason that the regime leadership and controlling institutions and services know that, and are busily regrouping, and desperately planning the best path to revenge and survival, with the key thought in mind that the best defense is an effective offense.  The following entities and indicators underscore the overall threat.

1. The Supreme Military Council is running the country with no one of the people's revolution effectively involved.
2. Mubarak continues to reside in Egypt, in Sharm el Sheikh.  His involvement with the current government can be neither confirmed or denied.
3. Some ministers of Mubarak's regime, as well as high-ranking government officials, are still in power.
4. Security Service officers from Mubarak's regine are still in place.
5. Intelligence officers loyal to Omar Suleiman, short-lived vice president and former head of Intelligence, are still in place.
6. Corrupt businessmen have great vested interest in the status quo.
7. Leaders of the National Democratic Party by and large are still around, their influence cannot be determined one way or the other.
8. Mubarak's regime media bosses are still in control, exerting enormous power.
9. State emergency law is still in effect.
10. Egypt's public prosecutor is still in office.
11. Political prisoners are still in prison.

It goes without saying that those entities will seek to achieve several objectives:

1. Defend their image in general, particularly in the media.
2. Distract the public, people of the revolution and the military with imaginative and remote issues and concerns.
3. Drive a wedge between the public (including revolutionary youth) and the military, in order to bring the regime and the military closer together and stiffen the back of the military vis-a-vis the public.
4. Generate as much chaos as possible, again prompting the need to deal with instability as a priority.

This way, they have a fighting chance to preserve the regime, albeit with a new face.  It is important to note that if they succeed, no one will be held accountable for the misery in Egypt over the last 30 years.

Current efforts by these entities, with propaganda and psychological warfare, include the following ten schemes:

First scheme:  Propagating the notion that on January 25, the people who took to the streets were confining their demands to legitimate concerns:

1. the resignation of Interior Minister Habib el-Adly,
2. raising the minimum wage, and
3. a new parliamentary elections.

These were reasonable demands; then outside interests got involved to direct the protesters to demand the removal of Mubarak and his regime.  This means that the real danger to the Egyptian people comes from the outside, not Mubarak.  By outside interests, they mean the United States and Israel, that is where the danger lies for the Egyptian people. 

The irony here is that both the so-called pro-Mubarak and the valiant revolutionary people in great numbers hold the United States and Israel, as well as in some instances the European Union, responsible and accountable for what has been happening in Egypt for the last 30 years including the last month.  Both sides make legitimate and defensible arguments, but that both could be right or wrong is most definitely beside the point.  In an case, the United States and Israel will continue to have, probably till the end of our world as we know it, their own policies and interests, the well-being of the Egyptian people may never be anywhere near the top of list of their objectives.  This is what the regime is saying.

Fact:  The fact of the matter is that the revolution was carried out by the Egyptian people for the Egyptian people.  The Egyptian people must now focus on rebuilding Egypt, thrusting it on the road to modernity, thus affording ALL of the Egyptian people a life of freedom, dignity and an ever-improving standard of living. 

When Egypt is well on the road to domestic health, only then will Egypt be in a position to partner with any nation, and due to its unparalleled strategic position, geographically and culturally, it may well influence the outcome of affairs in the Middle East, starting with the uncompromising right of the Palestinians for their sovereign, independent and free state.  It is my unwavering opinion that until then there will never be peace or stability in the Middle East, and unthinkable and highly undesirable consequences could be in the offing, maybe not this year or next but most definitely one day.

Second scheme:  Further emphasizing the danger lurking from outside Egypt by raising question marks as regards a multitude of psychological issues and events over the last few weeks, beginning early January, generating in the process fear of instability.  The questions being used to promote the idea that outside forces are at work:

1. Who organized the five simultaneous prison breaks?
2. Who blew up the gas lines in northern Sinai, affecting only the Jordan and not the Israel pipeline?
3. Who burned main infrastructures in Egypt?
4. Who is behind misleading media information?
5. Why is Wael Ghoneim married to an American and working for Google?
6. Why do we have revolutions all over the Arab world all at the same time, in democratic and economically sound countries like Bahrain and Tunisia, the most developed country in the Middle East?
7. Why Wiki leaks took place just before the revolutions in the Middle East?
8. Why most of the Wikileaks documents were directed at the Palestinians and Arabs, with nothing about Israel?
9. Why did the Alexandria church (January 3) explosion take place just before January 25 revolution?

Third scheme:  Undermining any attempt for the revolutionary youth and other opposition groups to coalesce around a leader or group of leaders, creating a void of leadership for the revolution.  Take the ongoing case being made against Mohamed ElBaradei heading such a group of leaders to affect the dismissal of the current regime and head a transitional government, together with a representative of the military, until solid elections later this year.  Questions continue to be raised as regards ElBaradei's years abroad working as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA):  When was the last time he visited a village?  Why is he suddenly interested in Egypt's political scene?  Why did he get his Nobel Peace prize, what exactly was his achievement? etc.

Funny thing is that I have personally heard from many so-called pro-Mubarak Egyptians that ElBaradei is a Zionist agent... then others say that he is an Iranian lapdog...

Fact:  ElBaradei is the best hope for a solid transition period, elections and a blueprint for the next few years.

Of course ElBaradei is a patriotic Egyptian.  The questions the Egyptian people should be asking about ElBaradei should be about the possibility of his having an active role in the transition to free and fair elections:  Is he qualified?  Is he capable?  Is he energetic?  Does he want to do it?  Can he bring forth the fresh ideas, discipline and organization desperately needed for Egypt's reconstruction efforts?  Can he motivate?  Can he lead?  Can he be a catalyst for mobilization of resources domestic and foreign to push ahead?  Can he guide the process leading to the fair and free elections? etc.

Fourth scheme:  Talking about outside interests driving a wedge between the Egyptian people and the highly-respected military, thus preventing the military from restoring order, firing up the economy, managing the government and the transition period and preparing for the elections.  This lengthens the state of instability and delays positive steps to be taken such as the release of political prisoners.

Fact:  It's the Egyptian people who demand the implementation of their second critical demand, the ousting of the regime, and the establishment of a civilian government with a military member to manage the country until the elections.  That is why the people will take to the streets again this February 22 asking for exactly that.

Fifth scheme:  Propagating the notion to let bygones be bygones, no need to pursue anyone for justice, and that we should focus on the future.  While this is not necessarily only generated from the regime, the Egyptian people are by nature kind and forgiving, it is a smart tactic nevertheless that could very well ensure the survival of the regime.

Sixth scheme:  While strikes, sit-ins and protests throughout many industries and factories are not all incited by the regime, it is estimated that at least 60% of them are.  Again, the military, now governing the country, would need to tighten its grip on the situation to safeguard the survivability of the state, intentionally or unintentionally allowing the regime enough time to regroup, counterattack and survive. 

Seventh scheme:  Stirring sympathy about Mubarak's advanced age, health and emotional conditions, citing his military record and his fervent desire to die and be buried in Egypt. 

Eighth scheme:  Tarnishing the image of the revolutionary youth, I indicated above for example what is being circulated about Wael Ghoneim's American wife and his employment with Google.  Funny thing is that Ghoneim has been portrayed on one hand as a foreign agent, an Iranian, a Zionist, a Freemason; and on the other hand as an employee of the Egyptian Interior Ministry and its Intelligence Service, remarkable talent this Ghoneim guy possesses!

Ninth scheme:  Cleansing the media of regime-oriented stories, accusations and the like, coupled with characters from the regime outlining positive steps being taken to fix matters and answer complaints about the Interior Ministry, intelligence operations or unwarranted arrests.  Basically effectively using the media to depict them as benevolent, on the side of the oppressed, the woe-begotten and the downtrodden.

Tenth scheme:  Calling for the establishment of a new party to be named the 25 January Party.  Probably the cleverest of schemes since it has the potential of returning to power the same people in the current regime.  Such a new party will have an inside track for the upcoming elections and would be financed and managed behind the scenes by people in support of the survival of the regime, people who may have been members of the now-defunct National Democratic Party, nominating a candidate who stands a good chance of winning and would be more than sympathetic to their concerns and aspirations to resume control over the country.  Basically the return to power under a new cloak!

Fact:  Any political movement under the 25 January banner has to incorporate all the political forces behind the revolution, such as the 6 April youth and ElBaradei youth.  It must have free voting and clear rules for candidacy and election, with competency a key characteristic.  

 

In conclusion, these schemes are already in full swing.   It is hoped over hope that all the revolutionary people of Egypt are alert to the possibility of a counter-revolution success.  The revolution needs to continue, with protests in the streets of Egypt, every Tuesday and Friday, until such time as the Mubarak regime is no longer and a new civilian transitional government is formed.  Then, and only then, can Egypt begin its march on the long road forward, a very difficult road at the beginning, will get smoother as time goes by, then gradually achieve the long-held desire for a good life for ALL Egyptians through democracy, vision, hard work, and unity of purpose.

Maybe Egypt, just maybe, by unleashing PEOPLE POWER, could point the finger towards a more honest, peaceful, principled, moral, just and compassionate new world.

Tuesday, February 22 is the next opportunity.

Hussein

© Dr Hussein A Amin 2011