Egypt: the Israel dilemma, Part 2

Dear Friends,

I read somewhere that information not shared is information wasted, consider me a believer.

This followup on my previous email on same subject has been gleaned from feedback I received from several thoughtful and informed friends.  I debated whether to name them as I quote them in order to give them credit for their words and analyses; I decided not to because when they wrote me, they did not expect that I would cite their names in emails and also they don't know to whom I send these emails.  In other words, I am grateful for and often impressed by their feedback and I feel that their words are important and should be shared, but I do not wish to compromise their privacy by mentioning their names.  Mixed with the feedback of friends are recent relevant articles and editorials.

In a March 3 article in the New York times "Israelis Float an Interim Peace Plan," Isabel Kershner writes "with the peace effort stalled for months, Israeli officials are talking of a temporary arrangement ahead of a two-state solution."  She also writes, "with the unrest in Egypt, Israel’s longest-standing peace partner in the region, many in Israel have argued that this is not the time to make bold territorial concessions. The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, told the Israeli Parliament late last month that it was imperative 'during these historical events that are unfolding before our very eyes that we understand reality properly. It requires caution and not hasty decisions.'"

Right there, in the above article, lies the Israeli dilemma with its enormous, unpredictable and potentially catastrophic consequences in and for the Middle East.  Israel knows that peace is a must, a two state solution is the only solution, but Israel lacks the indispensable leadership and vision to make it a reality.  Talk and a temporary, incomplete solution is all Israel can offer.

Poverty, injustice, and lack of freedom will continue to plague the Middle East for some time to come.  Having Israel be the only thriving democracy and the lone prosperous nation is invariably perceived, whether justifiably or not, as ill-gained and therefore unjust.  While perceptions matter a great deal, making matters worse in the face of Israel's ever-growing wealth are reports of great injustice to the Palestinians in the West Bank, inhumane policies and practices by Israeli authorities as regards West Bank Palestinians' water supply and sanitation needs.  Other reports are now surfacing that the Mubarak family helped Israel secure lucrative natural gas contracts at below market price with Egypt's petroleum ministry in exchange for a kickback for both of Mubarak's sons, Gamal 5% and Alaa 2.5%, which would make Israel a party to Egypt's corruption.  Reports have also surfaced over the last few weeks highlighting other secret economic deals, mainly petroleum export deals, between the Egyptian Petroleum Agency and Israeli concerns, such as the Mirhalf company, deals that secure for Israel a vast share of Egyptian natural gas exports at prices well below market.  These deals, among other factors, had a cumulative negative effect on Egypt's investing in its private sector according to the national plan for economic development.

"Let us hope that the countries that have frozen Mubarak’s billions find a way to return them to the Egyptian people in ways that will benefit the Egyptian people and not wind up in the wrong hands," says a friend.  Poverty has to be dealt with, otherwise it will become an even greater threat to peace and stability in the Middle East.  Poverty can be exploited in so many ways, by so many factions, by corrupt and abusive governments, by religious groups, by international corporations (for cheap labor costs) that care little about the welfare of the populace of the Middle East countries.  "When people are impoverished and uneducated, it is very easy to control and manipulate them by distorting the truth and making promises," notes a friend.  For Israel not to concern itself with the prevailing economic conditions of the Middle East is an ill-advised national policy.  "Only when there is hope for prosperity throughout the region will there be a chance for a lasting peace and normalization of relations between Israel and all of its neighbors, mainly because only then will it be more difficult for the extremists on either side to attract followers and preach violence," a friend.

Failure of Israeli leaders.

1. The lack of inspiring and historical leadership in Israel over the last three or four decades is cause for serious concern and deep sadness.  It presents great danger to the region.  Israel is a strong country, economically, politically and socially, it has the 100% backing of the United States, it need not be an obstacle for future democracies in the Middle East.  Israeli leaders have been great in talking, but grossly lacking in doing.  They have been guided by fear and expediency, not by values and vision.  Israeli leaders must deal with their national disunity, and get the people of Israel to unite behind a promising future, not a perilous present.
2. The notion propagated by Israeli leaders in government and across Israeli society that there is no alternative to confrontation, and that compromise with the enemy would undermine security, is recklessly short-sighted and self-serving on the part of Israeli leadership/politicians, in that it requires less sweat to come up with a definitive solution and is an irresponsible and risky mentality.  England and France were once the scene of a hundred-year war, they still are not very fond of each other, not to mention the relationship between the US and Europe, but you do not hear anyone, anyone talk about an impending war in that regard.  It is likely that Arabs and Jews may never love each other or even like each other, but if an environment of peace, economic development with free trade and protected human rights were to prevail in the Middle East, who is to say that Israel's security would not be as safe as it is for any other nation in the region, or in the world for that matter.  Of course there will always be pockets in the Arab world that would like to see Israel disappear, but with such a progressive environment in the region, they will be in the minority, always, extremists by definition are a minority, they only surface and become a factor in states of poverty, disillusion, injustice and chaos.
3. A friend writes "Israel has not had a a 'stand up' decent leader with real values for quite some time. Personally a while back, I had my hopes set on Ehud Barak but he failed to show the strength and resilience needed to lead such a hard headed, difficult nation as Israel has become.  Netanyahu does not, to my mind, bear thinking about.  He has never been a leader to lead and remains to at best a talker but not really a doer.  So there is no leader in Israel right now who actually make a case and take the stand you suggest."
4. This friend also says "Those Israelis who would say yes to equipping the Palestinians with some much needed technology and infrastructure and monetary security would never succeed in convincing their Israeli brethren that territory for peace is a worthwhile compromise--after all those people are still mourning the loss of  Gaza.  So the people themselves can not unite behind a cause."
5. A friend writes "I'm only a person who believes strongly in 'Justice, justice, ye shall pursue' mixed in with a strong dose of humanitarianism.  I believe the government of Israel has lost its soul, and that makes me sad, and especially sad considering our own long history of being persecuted.  Their behavior does not make sense to me at all."

The reason Israeli leadership is important is that it is Israel's turn to deliver.  It must take a stance for peace and hope and not confrontation.  Anwar Sadat, Egypt's President, 1970-1981, did Israel a huge favor in 1979.  Look where Israel is now politically, economically and socially, while the Arab world at the moment is embroiled in a life and death struggle to free its people, lift them out of poverty and give them justice.  Therefore, Israel can and will achieve considerable gains if it were to deliver an imaginative, bold and shockingly aggressive plan for  implementing the two state solution with Palestine, peace with its neighbors, and become an agent for economic development, seeking to engage in technology, science, infrastructure and education in the region.

An indescribable bonus to an Israeli leadership with a decisive plan will be the rendering of the two items below as inconsequential.

1. The Camp David Peace Treaty accord between Egypt and Israel.  Currently being discussed in many articles is that the Treaty will undoubtedly come under scrutiny no matter which government, parliament or who will be the next President of Egypt.  The main reason is that Egypt's new authorities will have to consider the merits and values of the treaty:  Has it provided mutual benefit?  Has it progressed peace in the region?  Has it help stabilize the region?  Has it lived up to its spirit?  All these questions will be addressed -- the outcome is unknown.  At the least it will become, if found not to have contributed to justice and fairness in the region, irrelevant, with no residual value, a paper tiger of sorts.  Again, Israel has a critical role to play here, not only to ensure the peace treaty, but also to drastically improve on it, mainly by implementing the two state solution expeditiously.
2. Egypt - Iran relations.  Currently being discussed in many articles is that current relations between these two countries will be reviewed.  Dialogue and negotiations will be needed to resolve issues and concerns on both sides, and to determine the way forward.  Iran is not a friend of Israel, a solid relationship between Egypt and Iran may or may not be meaningful as regards Israel.  An Egyptian friend recently wrote "Let me tell you how the people I know thinks...we have no worry at all about Iran.  Iran is a problem for the US for obvious reasons but for us Iran will make the necessary power balance needed in the Middle East."  (This friend is referring, of course, to an Iran with nuclear capability counter-balancing that of Israel.)  That is precisely why I much prefer rendering the issue of Iran inconsequential, no question about it.

I for one would be horrified, and I would not survive it, to see my mother, my family and the people of Egypt incinerated by a nuclear nightmare which, for any thinking person on earth, is the only option Israel would have if its existence is threatened.  I for one much prefer betting on peace over confrontation that would inevitably lead to war (who could have predicted what happened to Mubarak and what is happening to Qaddafi?), a war that if Israel knows it is losing would unquestionably go the nuclear route and blow up the whole region, Samson at the temple, in the Samson and Delila story.  Remember, Israel can only lose once and would certainly go the nuclear route if backed into a corner.  What a strange and crazy logic!

Below are three thoughtful commentaries underscoring the discussion above and articulating that there really is but one common sensible choice, that of a comprehensive peace, human rights justice and a promising future for all, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Libya and the whole of the Middle East.

1. In a March 4 article titled "Offer peace to 80 million Egyptians," the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth asked Tel Aviv to go directly to the Egyptian people calling for peace in the midst of fears in Israel of future Egyptian opposition to honor normalization with Tel Aviv.  The newspaper said in a report today, "We live in historic days, the Middle East is changing before our eyes, and there are those who believe in Israel that the worst is yet to come and we should be ready for it, instead Tel Aviv should now grab the opportunity and take a number of steps to make it clear to Cairo that we seek peace and that we care about the future of Egypt's and our sons and daughters in the region."  More, in the Yedioth article "Today, the eyes of the Egyptian street are directed at their internal affairs, we need to take advantage of this opportunity when Egypt is focused on reforms and pave the road for the next day when they look toward Tel Aviv and the issue of normalization."  Also in the article "Why do our writers, poets and our thinkers not take to inviting the Egyptian people to peace with us, what are we afraid of, we now have a strategic duty to warm up relations between us and 80 million Egyptians, thereafter warm up relations between us and the rest of the Arab world."
2. A friend writes and I completely agree: "Israel follows policies that are isolating and causing it to lose even more credibility in a world that is jaundiced against it.  Ultimately it must make peace with the Palestinians and with the nations around it.  The demographics insist on this result.  Israel’s fears are understandable in the face of its history, the current threats from Hamas and Hezbollah, and the belief that the Arab peoples have always demanded their extinction, but it must not stand against the tides of history.  It must take the gamble that support for democratic like regimes expressing the will of their people will in the long term enhance Israel’s security as a leading democracy.  Friedman is right, if Israel fails to be with this new wave sweeping the region, it will at the end be washed over by a tidal wave."
3. A friend is "glad to hear that there are finally groups in Israel and the US that realize that the way to peace in the Middle East is to stop the expansion of settlements and let the Palestinians have a state."

And now to end on a lighter note, courtesy of a friend, let me share with you below the Israeli sense of humor.  Again, it accentuates the deadlock nature of this Israeli-Palestinian conflict and emphatically illustrates that if peace, justice and prosperity is to be had for all, there really is but one common sensible choice, a state for Israel and a state for Palestine.

An ingenious example of speech and politics occurred recently in the United Nations Assembly and made the world community smile.

A representative from Israel began:  "Before beginning my talk I want to tell you something about Moses, when he struck the rock and it brought forth water, he thought 'What a good opportunity to have a bath!'  Moses removed his clothes, put them aside on the rock and entered the water.  When he got out and wanted to dress, his clothes had vanished.  A Palestinian had stolen them!"  The Palestinian representative at the UN jumped up furiously and shouted "What are you talking about? The Palestinians weren't there then."  The Israeli representative smiled and said, "And now that we have made that clear, I will begin my speech."

A friend of mine ends his emails with "WORK TOWARDS PEACE NOT WAR."  Sounds wonderful to me.

Hussein

© Dr Hussein A Amin 2011