Dear friends,
The situation currently brewing in Syria has gone on for too long. It is a situation that presents a real and present danger for the world entire.
Regardless of the final outcome, and we know that there is a United Nations-brokered cease-fire deadline (April 10), Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Thursday, April 5, that the violence and human rights violations by Syrian security forces in civilian population centers are only getting worse ahead of the cease-fire deadline. He also said that the crisis in Syria is claiming more lives every day (death toll has risen over 9,000 by UN estimates) even though President Bashar Assad's government insists it is withdrawing troops ahead of the UN deadline to end the violence. Link below.
Moreover, the Security Council also on Thursday issued a statement pressing the Syrian government to stop shelling residential areas, while Turkey reported an unprecedented influx of thousands of refugees.
Over the last couple of weeks, I have asked informed friends to give me their analysis and views on the Syria situation, I present them below. I'll follow with my own analysis.
Pro-Assad regime point of view
I have been watching this game played on a global scale with interest and even with pleasure. My team is Syria without the slightest apology since the game started in 13 months ago. I am also backing this underdog who is playing a perfect game and is actually scoring and winning. You have to get the global picture and then go down to the details. First thing is to get religion out of it, Sunnis, Shiites, Christians, Druze, Alawites, etc.
On one side is the US, Israel and its allies: NATO including Turkey, its dogs in the region: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Al Qaeda terrorist organization, the Hariri faction in Lebanon and the formidable Zionist world media whether newspapers or TV stations in addition to Al Jazeera and the Arabiya etc.
On the other side, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah, Russia, China, the rest of BRICS countries, Socialists countries in Latin and South America and me.
The way the US and Israel see it is simple: The genuine revolutions were in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain. Main characteristic is that they are PEACEFUL. The US was caught off guard for a couple of weeks but has succeeded to kidnap these revolutions and made a diabolic alliance with the Military and the Muslim Brotherhood in these countries to maintain the status quo ante. The new strategy is to turn the region into a new alliance with political Fundamentalist Islamic states and entities like, the MB, the Salafis, the Wahabis, the Takfiristes. The aim is clear: to prepare the ground for a Sunni war against Iran, to radicalize the region creating multiple sectarian conflicts between the Muslim and Christians and within the Muslims and create fertile soil for international Islamic terrorism. The same strategy succeeded in Libya where a secular regime and state fell into chaos but has failed in Syria. Libya and Syria were straight forward destabilization and foreign intervention to topple anti American pro Russian and Chinese regimes and turning them into failed states under political Islamic fundamentalist rule. The main aim of this strategy is to destroy Iran and move on to destabilize the regions in Russia and China populated by Islam and deprive these two countries from access to the region's energy supply.
No revolution whatsoever happened in Libya or Syria, but armed terrorists and mercenaries from the word start. Libya fell in a virtual war through a propaganda war and NATO finishing off the regime and its military might. The US, Israel and NATO wanted to repeat the same Libyan scenario in Syria. They were pushing their luck too far and thought that the world is a bunch or mentally retarded nations which could be fooled time and time again. Emerging naive Russia and China were duped and received the biggest smack on the back of the head since the end of the cold war by abstaining to use their veto in the Libyan resolution which led directly to the destruction of a sovereign country by interfering blatantly in its internal affairs, installing a weak American puppet regime and to the immediate loss of Russian and Chinese interests and presence in that country. A strategic disaster for these two countries.
Therefore Libya was where the imperial buck stopped. Russia and China decided that never, never again the Libyan scenario would be repeated in any country in the world. From now on no interference in the internal affairs of any country under any pretext. The age of one superpower has definitely ended with the fall of Libya. Of course the only superpower did not want to believe this fact and thought it is still business as usual. Therefore they forced a resolution against Syria in the SC and it was faced with a double veto from Russia and China. It went berserk. Two months later, still not believing that the world has changed, it forced a second resolution against Syria which was once more faced with another double veto from the same two countries. It went lunatic but the plain truth sank at last into its arrogant big thick head slowly. It is not the sole player on the world stage any more.
Everyone knows that Syria can take care of the terrorism exported to her from Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel and will not fall in a million years UNLESS NATO interferes military under cover of a SC resolution and this resolution will never pass. The US camp knows very well that pushing an invasion on Syria anyway will be confronted by an active war which will mobilize Hezbollah against Israel, Iran interfering militarily with Syria and against Turkey and the strong backing of Russia and China, a mini WW3? Iran and Hezbollah without Syria are doomed, Russia and China after the fall of Syria and Iran are doomed. A Syrian victory is a strategic disaster for the US and Israel in the region and across the world. The stakes are extremely high for everyone involved.
Syria has won the military and the diplomatic wars due to the extreme ability of its leadership and the backing of the vast majority of the Syrian people. It has cleverly built a very strong alliance with Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Russia and China, etc. and is so far playing an excellent game which I am sure it will win. The final stage is to secure the Lebanese and Turkish borders with a very heavy army and security presence to prevent infiltration of terrorists, armed MB, Al Qaeda, mercenaries from everywhere. The money is provided by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Golf Countries. France has shut up because 45 French special forces have been arrested operating inside Syria and Turkey is now only barking and will never contemplate a military confrontation with a strong Syrian army and a lot of threats from Russia and Iran.
I think what you watch on TV all the time may well have been happening on the moon and not in Syria, a Hollywood badly directed movie.
Another pro-Assad regime point of view
The Assad regime has provided political stability, in an otherwise turbulent country, for decades, a lot of social benefits, relatively good governance, and lastly, national pride in its foreign policy.
Anti-Assad regime point of view
An unbiased, unsupportive analysis would not find the pro-Assad's arguments viable, that is:
- Syria is being subject to an external conspiracy led by the US and the West,
- Thugs & mercenaries are attacking Syria under the banner of Arab Spring, and
- That most Syrians are in support of their "patriot & visionary bold" leader, Bashar Al Assad!
The truth is that the entire world community (except Russia & China) are condemning Assad and his inhumane butchering practices against his people! Facts and not opinions should be considered in determining the merits of Assad's presidency and government.
I agree that this conflict pits the big geopolitical greedy competitors of our era in a game of chess moves (such as the cases of Iran, Iraq & Afghanistan), however, Assad is beyond question one of the filthiest and ruthless dictators of our time. He was planted into power by his father's decree upon a secret agreement with his army senior clan collaborators, while representing a sect that's not even 10% of the majority of Syrians (Sunnis), and recently -under whatever pretext he claims- Assad has been gunning down with heavy shelling and air power women & children in Syrian cities indiscriminately: if Assad is not a dictator of the worst kind, I don't know who is!!! And I predict that he will NOT prevail!
Another anti-Assad regime point of view
I am against the Assad regime, it is a brutal Dictatorship, whether other Powers are fighting to get him out or not. BUT it does not take away the fact that the killing of civilians this way is wrong, they are the victims of both or more sides, as are all civilians in all wars and disputes.
Also, the viciousness with which the regime is hitting civilians and areas in Syria is related to the fact that the Assads are Allawis. The Allawis are a minority who have been in power for a long time as DICTATORS, so fighting for survival, and I think this is part of why Bashar's father (Hafez), having taken over the reins, did not and could not give up ruling Syria. When his other son died, he brought Bashar back from London to Syria to ensure the continuation of his Regime. If the Allawis lose power, what will happen to them? How many people have they hurt over the years, who can’t wait to get back at them!!
Seeing the brutal way the Assad regime fought opponents for years, can you imagine what revenge is waiting for the opposition if they lose this struggle. That is why, I believe, it was not difficult for ‘foreign intervention’ to find support to fight the Regime. The Regime’s enemies also are fighting for survival, although they are not the minority.
The Middle East has been the target and victim of imperialism, in all its forms, for a long time, it is not about to stop now, when there is more at stake!!
Neither pro- or anti-Syria regime
I am inclined to believe that the framework for the next global cold war is being formulated right before our very own eyes.
Not since the end of the last cold war has there been a conflict where so many nations are involved, serious economic interests are in competition, and potential new world powers are at the crossroads.
At the start I would like to mention, that the character, legitimacy, or malevolence of the Assad regime are beside the point. Similarly, are those of the Iranian regime. You can also say the same as to those of Russia, China, Israel, etc... None of them are Utopian or savory regimes. That is all beside the main point I am trying to convey.
The main issue is that the new "New World Order" is being shaped according to the new realities of the day; scarce natural resources, new emerging markets, and new military alliances. The old NATO vs. Warsaw Pact camps is being replaced by new East-West confrontation camps.
The following is a partial list of global issues which define the new "New World Order":
- As opposed to a struggle between Capitalism vs. Communism ideologies, the battle is now between real economic issues of access to scarce raw materials, global markets, and financial strength.
- Strategic geographic presence in the world; military bases, space exploration, and open seas. The US and China especially are playing cat and mouse regarding these issues in Africa, Latin America, and the Far East.
- Both camps are competing for allies wherever they can find them.
Hence my classification of nations according to this scenario:
- The anti-Assad Camp:
- Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, US, Europe, Egyptian MB's, Turkey, the Arab League, Syrian Sunnis.
- The Assad Camp:
- Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah, Syrian Christians, Druze, Shiites.
- Spectators:
- Hamas, Fatah, Kofi Anan/UN, Lebanon, Iraq.
- The ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM:
- Israel.
If we eliminate the minor players in this game, we are left with two camps:
- The US/Israel Camp:
- Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, US, Europe, Egyptian Muslim Brothers, Turkey, Syrian Sunnis.
- The Iran/Russia/China Camp:
- Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah, the Assad Regime.
The Israel-Iran conflict regarding nuclear weapons is but a mini struggle to assert who will be King of the Hill in the Middle East. Thus the big guys (US, Russia and China) will do everything they can to prevent Israel from starting a premature WW III Ala the Sarajevo assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand that started unintentionally WW I.
A former Assad's colleague (retired M.D. surgeon) point of view
My explanation as to why bloodshed means little to Bashar El Assad.
- Genetic factor
- His father Hafez El Assad, ordered the Hama massacre of 1982, which has been described as "the single bloodiest act by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East".
- Environmental factor
- Long term insidious internal bleeding and repression caused by the Ottoman and French occupation of Syria.
- Occupational factor
- Bashar is an ophthalmologist by profession. Ophthalmology is a surgical specialty that doesn’t worry much about blood loss… the cornea has no blood supply, very much like nails.
My advice is for him to go back to his noble profession of restoring eyesight and to enjoy the company of his beautiful family.
My own analysis
The new "New World Order", mentioned in the Neither pro- or anti-Syria regime section, will continue to play itself out, taking shape before our eyes, the new East-West confrontation is brewing as we speak, who will be King of the Hill in the Middle East is yet to be settled. This may happen soon or may not reach closure in our lifetime.
The US, Russia and China are doing everything they can to prevent the Iran-Israel conflict from starting a premature WW III. My serious concern is that the situation in Syria if not resolved is equally dangerous in the same vein. Therefore, same effort from these three super powers must be directed to put a halt to Assad's brutal assault on the Syrian people who like in many, if not all, Middle East countries want nothing more than a taste of freedom and dignity.
Nothing denies freedom to or strips dignity from a nation's peopIe like rulers who unilaterally decide that they and only they are to rule and control all affairs of a nation. I am fundamentally and categorically opposed to any ruler, anywhere in the world, holding office indefinitely. The world's history already has multiple examples of the disastrous outcomes for nations when this takes place.
As we all know, power corrupts, and absolute power absolutely corrupts.
Any independent and critical analysis of Bashar Assad's regime will confirm its dynastic intentions (Bashar, president since 2000, his father Hafez, president 1971-2000; see attached picture) and will bear out its lack of legitimacy and viability for the Syrian people. It is utterly illogical to accept the Assad family ruling Syria for 41 years and not see the all-around harm that this brings to a nation. A similar situation in Egypt brought disastrous consequences. There is a reason that you do not find such a limitless terms of presidency or prime ministership in the more developed countries such as Denmark, Norway, Finland, Netherlands, France, US, Japan, Canada, etc.
Any regime in any country, if it is not limited in its term, it will become for life, inevitably ushering in incompetent, corrupt, brutal and out-of-touch governments.
Consequently, for the sake of the Syrian people, the removal of Bashar Assad from power in Syria should be the goal of the international community. The Syrian people should not be made a sacrificial lamb while the "New World Order" is being established. The Syrian people do not care who will be the new King of the Hill in the Middle East. Being under the influence of Russia and China, catering to their interests, as opposed to the US like in Egypt and Iraq, as opposed to NATO in Libya, makes no difference to the Syrian people, a political and economical occupation is an occupation no matter the flag. The Syrian people know that the only reason Bashar Assad is not already on the run is his support from Russia and China, support that would benefit not the Syrian people, but would keep Assad in power and make life a little better for the Russian and Chinese people!
Servitude to Russia = servitude to China = servitude to the US = servitude to NATO. People in a perpetual state of servitude become increasingly unaware that servitude has become their way of life.
A people with true freedom knows no bounds, and are capable of remarkable achievement. They are free to change themselves, change the destiny of their region, setting in the process their own "Order" with a new morality and new concepts of life.
In modern times, Middle Eastern countries from the Atlantic Ocean to the Persian Gulf have been ruled by autocratic, corrupt and incompetent regimes, explaining to a large extent the comparatively low and slow degree of social, economic, and political development. People are the last thing on the mind of Middle East rulers, also explaining the so-called "Arab Spring of 2010-." Middle East rulers to secure their stranglehold on their respective nations, have diabolically resorted to aligning themselves to Western or Eastern powers, which for self-interest reasons always prefer, stability and subservience over democracy in any of Middle East countries.
In the case of Syria, Assad has hitched his wagon to Russia and China, two countries competing for the Middle East riches. By contrast, Egypt's military regime (now the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF)) and Saudi Arabia's monarchy long ago decided on the US. The indescribably-damaging price is being borne out by the people, as always.
Assad's regime is unacceptable. What are the issues?
- The international community is not unified in its condemnation of Bashar Assad's regime, due mainly to Russia and China threatening vetoes of serious UN action.
- The belief that the Syrian regime will fall on its own.
- The cost of a US-alone intervention would be too high in casualties and expenses.
- Unlike in Libya, no country so far supports US intervention.
- The Syrian opposition is not united and US-supplied weapons could fall to anti-American forces.
- What comes after Assad may be worse, including a possible Islamist regime.
- Assad has a far stronger air-defense system than did Libya.
- Barack Obama's, US President, administration would like to avoid another foreign entanglement, particularly with a war with Iran still a possibility and the November, 2012 presidential elections.
Assad's regime is unacceptable. What should be done?
- The US should keep working on unifying the international community, including Russia and China.
- Turkey should help unify the Syrian opposition.
- Once unified, the Syrian opposition should be supplied with arms, radios and other equipment.
- The unified international community should make it clear to Assad that unless he moves on, the use of air power, one that could easily handle Syrian air defenses, will be brought to bear.
- The UN should continue to make the case for intervention based on humanitarian grounds.
Hussein
©
Dr Hussein A Amin 2011
hussein.amin45@gmail.com
