In light of the current standoff between the Egyptian government, a.k.a the Egyptian mafia or the rotten regime, and the Egyptian people, I share with you more of my thoughts. It is important to note that since my distribution list includes friends all over the world from all walks of life, some of you are bound to disagree with my thoughts. If so, that is obviously perfectly fine and I respect your thoughts, we all are free people who believe in free speech. If you wish, please disseminate at will.
The Egyptian government is simply waiting out the protesters in Tahrir Square, Cairo, the protest is actually entering its most dangerous phase to date. Protesters, if the people's revolution were to die down and media attention be distracted to other world issues, could be subject to harassment one by one, they could be picked off one by one, detained indefinitely, tortured at will and maybe even killed if they object too much or their health cannot withstand the torture.
The newly appointed vice president, Mubarak's hit man, a torturer and a murderer, is making outrageous statements, insulting in the process the people who are risking their lives, their health and their future. Omar Suleiman, former head of Egypt's intelligence services, now says that there will some tweaking of the constitution, that there is no reason to lift the emergency measures in place since 1981, and that the Egyptian people do not possess the culture of democracy. Basically nothing changed, the regime continues to believe that they will survive this uprising and that Egypt still lives in 1981!
I very strongly believe that this is a determined revolution, the people will not abort it, the Egyptian people have conquered their fear, they are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, they can smell freedom, they sense that their chance is finally here to seize control of their lives, to seek their opportunities to achieve life with dignity and hope. The momentum is on the side of the people, and unless their is a bloodbath of harrowing proportions, they will prevail, predicting exactly when is not a concern. One day, soon is my fervent hope, there will be a new Egypt, an Egypt without humiliation, autocracy, poverty, oppression, dictatorship, injustice, and the whole world would be welcome.
Patrick Henry famously asked: "Is life so dear or peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" I know with absolute certainty that these valiant Egyptian youths are ready to sacrifice everything for life with honor, they are willing to pay the ultimate price for that long-oppressed vision of a decent and free life, their dream is about to be realized and they would be willing to die for that. Simple reason I know is that I would not hesitate to do the same, however, on many levels I do not qualify for an Egyptian youth, I am an Egyptian American, I am a generation too old, I can hardly embody the future of Egypt, my time has come and gone.
It does not matter if/when Mubarak leaves without a complete change in government. The whole regime must go. Everyone in the government now – the VP he picked, the cabinet he replaced the old cabinet with, all levels – are his people. They are part of his patronage system, and they will run the government exactly the way he has for the last 30 years, with secret police jailing anyone who disagrees with him, with extreme corruption from top to bottom. Mubarak leaving means nothing; the government has to change completely for there to be any future for Egypt. If not, everything in Egypt will be the same. The army that has ruled Egypt since 1952 will continue to rule it and the country will still suffer from a huge vacuum of ideas and real political alternatives. But Egypt will never be the same again, Egyptians will march and protest again and again with the possibility of dire consequences, with no end in sight, what a future to look forward to.
For a liberal secular democracy to take hold, the transition has to start now and it has to start with a meaningful political discourse, with country leadership addressing the real issues. Until the ineffective talking about democracy stops, things will not get better at all. It will only get worse. Again, the current regime has to go for any of this to start.
Mubarak is worth anywhere from $25 - $70 BILLION. Even if this is an exaggeration, still, he and the entire regime have amassed fortunes beyond one's imagination, particularly when you consider that their jobs, their careers, are basically public sector jobs. Mubarak's wealth is money he skimmed off the government over the last 30 years. He has had three jobs in his career: military officer, VP under Sadat, and president for the last 30 years. There's no way he amassed that kind of money honestly. Everyone in his government has been taking money from government budgets, contracts, and bribes all this time and they all will move heaven and earth to keep that wealth coming. All of this, with 40% of Egyptians living on $2/day.
I unequivocally believe that the United States is making a colossal mistake pretending to be neutral while the whole world especially those well-informed (thanks to the wonders of social media), well-educated and highly motivated Egyptians on the streets of Cairo, Alexandria and an increasing number of cities throughout Egypt...that by not officially and loudly denouncing the Mubarak regime and in the same breath speaking with a deafening noise of its full support of the democratic revolution now taking place in Egypt, the US has made the decision to allow the regime to make some cosmetic changes, such as replacing Mubarak by Suleiman, and proceed forward with elections six months from now where Suleiman or another from the regime is almost certain to win. The reasons the current regime will win are many: without free press, print and TV, other candidates have no way to make their case to the voters; under the current emergency measures they can detain other candidates and keep them from the public as they have before; and they have decades of experience conducting fraudulent elections, This obviously will keep everything same as regards US interests and Egypt.
This will be tantamount to a march by the US toward disaster. The Egyptian people are no longer accepting their cruel autocratic regime, nor are they accepting the US policy to consider Egypt valuable only as long as it conforms to its strategic and economic objectives, the Suez canal, the security of Israel and the war on terrorism. The Egyptian people have long asked why their own interests are not included in the package, how come Washington has not invested heavily in their well-being as people, as a nation yearning to join the modern world. Democracy in Egypt should never be conditional on how it serves US interests, or how it could be tamed. It is precisely because of that that the United States does not have credibility in Egypt, and the whole of the Middle East. According to polls released by the Brooking Institute in August, 2010, some Arabs agree with Washington and western commentators that Iran is a threat: 10%. In contrast, they regard the US and Israel as the major threats (77%; 88%). Arab opinion is so hostile to Washington's policies that a majority (57%) think regional security would be enhanced if Iran had nuclear weapons. Egypt is in the midst of social disintegration, economic stagnation, gross social injustice, severely curtailed freedom, a corrupt political system, a first-degree police state, repressive emergency measures and the Egyptian people hear nothing from the United States or Europe for that matter. I maintain that in an open and peaceful political system, the Egyptian people will always choose to go after a modern life.
This notion, a notion that I find more than appalling, that Egypt with its 84 million+ people is bound to go the way of Islamic fundamentalists, that the Muslim Brothers will rule Egypt for the next millennium, is so misguided I cannot begin to address it. Suffice to say that the Egyptian people have among them millions of intellectuals, millions of secular-minded people, millions of liberal-thinking individuals and millions of citizens at home and abroad who thoroughly familiar with modernity, with what constitutes progressive societies, they understand about market economies, about the role of education and work ethic, they are moderate and desperate to catch up with the rest of advanced societies.
Instead of focusing on the fear factor associated with the Muslim Brothers taking over Egypt, or on Al Qaeda gaining entrance and control of Egypt via the Muslim Brothers, the US should look at who took to the streets in Cairo, and the fact that they are marching for democracy, for freedom, for social justice, for political reforms, for a decent job and for a dignified and fulfilling life, they are not shouting jihadist slogans, they are not burning US flags. The US should focus on hope and show it stands for people everywhere to have control over their lives.
In free and fair elections, the Muslim brothers may gain 20-25% of parliament seats, but the overall makeup of seats would be pluralistic; that is what democracy is all about. Aside from President Obama repeatedly saying that the outcome and decisions related to what is happening in Egypt is for Egyptians to determine and take, the Muslim Brothers are Egyptians, in a free society they would have the inalienable right to live, work, worship and pursue happiness. If we were to say that Egypt could have democracy only if we guarantee that certain factions of its society are not allowed to participate, then we are straight back to an authoritarian regime. It would be as if we were to say that the United States is a democracy but we would not allow Tea Party members and advocates to run. Well, that did not happen last November 2010, Tea Party candidates ran and won the majority of available seats in the US Congress House of Representatives. Does that mean the end of the United States as we know it, hardly, and I would contend never. Reason simple, in a true, vibrant and forever evolving democracy, there always be separation of powers, the executive branch/the President and the administration, the Senate, the Supreme Court and all other courts, and all kind of institutions, and above all the people who can next time around, the 2012 elections, change the outcome of the 2010 and the 2008 elections if they were to see what they do not appreciate for their future, and the future of their children and grandchildren. That is democracy, people governing themselves, and Egypt deserves no less!
No one can predict the future, but as many scholars and Middle East experts have already come out and said "the Mubarak regime was very skillful at exaggerating the influence of the Brotherhood and painting them as a threat to Egyptian society and to the west." Basically, as Farid Zakaria said in Time magazine on February 14, "I remain convinced that fears of an Egyptian theocracy are vastly overblown." Zakaria also said "Once the Muslim Brotherhood has to compete in the marketplace of ideas, it might find that, as in many Muslim countries, people are more worried about issues of government competence, corruption and growth than grand ideological statements."
No one can predict the future, but as many scholars and Middle East experts have already come out and said "the Mubarak regime was very skillful at exaggerating the influence of the Brotherhood and painting them as a threat to Egyptian society and to the west." Basically, as Farid Zakaria said in Time magazine on February 14, "I remain convinced that fears of an Egyptian theocracy are vastly overblown." Zakaria also said "Once the Muslim Brotherhood has to compete in the marketplace of ideas, it might find that, as in many Muslim countries, people are more worried about issues of government competence, corruption and growth than grand ideological statements."
There are two gigantic problems to address: (1) the security of Israel, and (2) the freedom and well-being of Egypt. Neither is more important than the other, and neither is less important than the other. Israel has a democracy, and Egypt – and other Middle Eastern countries – have the unquestionable right to democracy as well. We need to work on both.
Israel's interests should not be the only driver of the US policies as regards Egypt, or the Arab world for that matter. Arab dictators ultimately are not good for Israel, because when they fall, and they will fall sooner or later, the fact that they have been propped up for the sake of Israel's interests turn countries like Egypt, once its valiant people free themselves from the despotic autocratic regime, into enemies of the state of Israel. An enemy that is highly likely never to forget or forgive the support these dictators received from the United States on behalf of Israel. This is the ultimate irony, compliant with Israel's interests but illegitimate leaders are heavily assisted to stay in power for fear that if they fall, the emergent state may prove hostile to Israel, but they do fall and the fear would most likely be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Israel is the only country in the world where a Jew can be sure they won't encounter anti-Semitism. It is the only country where a Jewish person does not have to be on guard that at any moment somebody might say or do something anti-Jewish. Israel is a country surrounded by countries that would love to see it blown off the face of the earth. Furthermore, the Diaspora did not work, throughout history Jews are systematically eliminated from lots of countries from time to time, and there are not that many countries where anti-Jewish sentiment is not rampant.
Egypt has a peace treaty with Israel. It's not because the Egyptian people think that's the right thing to do, it's because the US bought it. The US sends more than $1.3 billion to Egypt every year, more aid than it sends to any other country except Israel. That makes it a purchased peace. Most of that money goes to the military, which means that most of it goes to the Mubarak regime. It's a bribe. But that dictatorship is bound to fall, it might even fall this year. Neither the US nor Israel has the right to agree that most of the more than 84 million Egyptians be sucked dry by a small group of military opportunists intent on enriching themselves. It's not right. Israel, no doubt with the help of the US, has to figure out a way other than the Mubarak regime to keep itself secure.
Many American Jews are debating the irony of Israel, which long promoted itself as the only democracy in its neighborhood, now voicing concerns about the birth of a democracy next door.
Israel in its not-so-subtle support of keeping the Mubarak regime, if not Mubarak himself, in power is short-sighted at best and as ill-advised a course of action, as irresponsible a national policy as could be made. Israel stands a solid chance of being in a perpetual state of isolation among its neighbors, of being suspect in its Middle East intentions in the eyes of the world, of living in fear and insecurity, constant instability - major miscalculations. Main reason would be, not only the current state of confrontation Israel has with many of its neighbors but that a free and democratic Egypt, and not the Muslim Brothers Egypt, would always remember and will not forgive that Israel did not support its January 25 people's revolution, failing to couple its own interests with the Egyptian people's interests, this new Egypt would not be a friend of Israel.
As George Friedman wrote in the Stratfor on February 8, "Israel badly needs peace with Egypt. It is easy to forget what things were like 40 years back, but it is important to remember that the prosperity of Israel today depends in part on the treaty with Egypt; the ideological pressure on Egypt must be eased, and that means a settlement with the Palestinians on less-than-optimal terms. The alternative is to stay the current course and let Israel take its chances. The question is where the greater safety lies. Israel has assumed that it lies with confrontation with the Palestinians. That’s true only if Egypt stays neutral. If the pressure on the Palestinians destabilizes Egypt, it is not the most prudent course. There are those in Israel who would argue that any release in pressure on the Palestinians will be met with rejection. If that is true, then, in my view, that is catastrophic news for Israel. In due course, ideological shifts and recalculations of Israeli intentions will cause a change in Egyptian policy. This will take several decades to turn into effective military force, and the first conflicts may well end in Israeli victory. But, as I have said before, it must always be remembered that no matter how many times Israel wins, it need only lose once to be annihilated."
Now, I would like to bring back to your attention what Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times on Feb. 1. "Today, I believe President Obama should put his own peace plan on the table, bridging the Israeli and Palestinian positions, and demand that the two sides negotiate on it without any preconditions. It is vital for Israel’s future — at a time when there is already a global campaign to delegitimize the Jewish state — that it disentangle itself from the Arabs’ story as much as possible. There is a huge storm coming, Israel. Get out of the way." I fully agree, and I add that the unsettling situation and uncertain outlook in Egypt demands of the United States renewed calculations as to how to bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians, enough with the talking, enough with insincere negotiations, negotiations with no repercussions of failure to either party!
The enormous obstacle I see to both Friedmans' ideas is the current void of leadership in Israel. We all know about Anwar Sadat, the courage and risks he took with his 1977 initiative as regards peace between Egypt and Israel, an initiative he paid for with his life, Regardless of how you feel about Sadat and his time in power, you must admit that was one of kind vision. I am also familiar with Benjamin Netanyahu, this is his second term as Israel's prime minister, we can readily see that he is clueless as regards moving the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians forward toward the two-states solution, a solution with no substitute. Well, Netanyahu is no Sadat! Israel would need, soon I contend, a one-of-kind leader who is willing to take risks, to be proactive and make peace, starting with the Palestinians of course, and then other neighbors; an Israeli leader could offer economic assistance to Israel's neighbors even before securing recognition from them, basically putting the cart before the horse, why not, nothing else has worked for decades, let us all see what happens, we may find ourselves witnesses to an amazing chapter in human history. Would it not be fantastic if an Israeli leader emerges to shock the world with a solution that would give comprehensive justice to the Palestinian people while assuring the security of Israel for good? Paraphrasing the great Rabbi Hillel ... If not here, at this critical juncture of the history of the Middle East.... then where? If not now, as we see the emergence of new way of life in the Middle East, then when? And if the responsibility is not with Israel's leadership... then who? It is time, it is high noon for this standoff between Israel and the Palestinians to come to an end, it has been the laughing stock of the world for generations now. I see it Israel's turn to produce another Sadat!!!
Any sane person on the face of this earth should fully understand that Israel’s security concerns, and the US commitment to Israel’s security is unshakable. However, the desire of the US not to risk a new government’s abandoning Mubarak’s benign posture toward Israel should never be the norm, instead the US should competently manage all of the conflicting fears, hopes and aspirations of Israelis and Egyptians by working not with Arab autocrats, but with Arab democracies.
The US and Israel should be up in front in support of the democratic transition in Egypt, sending Egypt back to business as usual with a repressive, U.S.-backed military regime, should not be an option. A future opposition, when it materializes, will be much more radical, with unpredictable consequences. The historic opportunity to have a democratic Egypt led by those with whom the U.S., Europe, and even Israel could do business will have been lost, maybe forever.
Paraphrasing Fouad Ajami, American University professor and writer on Middle Eastern issues, the situation in Egypt is an epic struggle between the irresistible force and the immovable object, that the Mubarak regime is morally collapsing, and that we hope that it would not be long before victory comes to the irresistible force, the Egyptian people.
While I maintain and am convinced that the Egyptian people now could get the job done and oust Mubarak's regime, it still would be seriously beneficial on many levels if Obama were to shout at the top of his lungs "Mr. Mubarak, tear down that regime!"
These last couple of weeks, when I close my eyes, I cannot escape seeing the Middle East as a bouquet of democratic flowers, similar in many ways yet ever so slightly different. Imagine Egypt, the United States and Israel becoming the axis of goodness in the Middle East, goodness economically, socially and politically. Each of these countries have some work to do, Egypt has Mubarak's regime to rid itself of, the US and Israel have ineffective and harmful policies to rid themselves from and leaders who need better prescriptions for their dim visions as to the best way forward for the Middle East. Nevertheless, imagine, how great this would be and not just for the Middle East but for the world entire.
My wife SherriJoyce King, a Jewish American, has been a great help to me in expressing these thoughts.
Tomorrow, Friday, February 11, 2011, could prove yet a decisive day, let us hope for a peaceful victory for the Egyptian people.
Remember, they all said Egyptians will never revolt, I wonder, what does the world think now!
Long live Egypt.
Hussein
© Dr Hussein A Amin 2011
