The Middle East mess, the big picture

Below 

friends 

please find a chart

 

that should make you smile, weep, scratch your head, get a headache then 

moan in 

despair.

  

The chart, with the corresponding short article

,

 

and 

related letter

 gives a very clear representation of the utter mess that is the Middle East region.

But before you get there, I would like t

o 

explain

 current Middle East mess 

from my

 perspective. Right or wrong is not the focus here, simply the facts on the ground.  

These facts are not meant to be comprehensive or to be definitive, but they tell the story of the region today.

Most importantly, please note the state of chaos that is gripping the region, and that the last thing anybody is concerned about, foreign or domestic, is what kind of future awaits the people, particularly, the young.

• T

  he US.  
   9/11/2001 has changed forever the way 
  the US
  , and the 
  western world for that matter
  ,
   see the Muslim world and in particular the Arab world.  
   Neutralizing the region by s
  haping and controlling 
  the state of affairs in its nations
   
  is 
  a paramount priority to ensure 
  that 
  no other 9/11 ever
   happens.  The
   overarching goal is taking the region out of the picture
  .
• The Afghan war
  .
   
   The 
  Taliban neutralized, Hamid Karzai a reluctant ally, Afghanistan 
  now is a country divided between Karzai government and the Taliban, in a state of turmoil for the foreseeable future, but 
  out of the picture.
• The Iraq war
  .
   
   
  Saddam Hussein is out, Shiites are happy, Iraq 
  now destabilized with ongoing sectarian conflict, a muted civil war, but 
  out of the picture.
• Iran
  .
    
  H
  eavily preoccupied with the nuclear issue, on the defensive about it and has no interest in attracting further attention, Iran 
  now is meddling in the Arab world, in Lebanon, in Iraq and in Syria, but 
  out of the picture.
• Hezbollah
  .
   
   H
  as Lebanon, enjoying power, heavy pockets and positive morale, under the watchful eye of Israel,
   intervention for own and Iran's interests in the region, and now in Syria,
   Hezbollah and Lebanon out of the picture.
• Hamas
  .
   
   H
  as Gaza, 
  a great prize, 
  same enjoyments and same watchful eye as Hezbollah, 
  constitutes a huge problem when it comes to the two-state solution (Which two states?).  
   Hamas out of the picture.
• Palestine/Fatah
  .  
   P
  romised a nation any
   
  time now, hope is eternal, 
  simmering unrest, mentally in a state of war with Israel, 
  Palestine out of the picture.
• AlQaeda
  .
   
   
  Bin 
  L
  aden dead, under constant surveillance wherever it is, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, anywhere in the region
  , droned at every opportunity, mad as hell and continues to be on the offensive looking for ways to insert itself in many of the countries, including Yemen, and now Syria.
• Israel.  Worries about Iran's nuclear issue, the pinballing Palestinians statehood affair, surrounded as always by Hamas to the south, Hezbollah to the north and Syria's ongoing civil war, not to mention most of the rest of the Arab world, in constant state of alert, has already distributed gas masks in anticipation of a Syrian chemical attack, has its finger on the trigger and in a perpetual war readiness, exactly what the doctor ordered for not only the people of Israel but for all the people of the region.
   
• Turkey, 

  Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE.  Self-serving intervention galore, mischief, competing for supremacy in the region, espousing Islamic ideologies with little concern for the peoples' welfare
  , 
  well-fed
   and happy
   within
   , out of the picture for a long time to come.
• Muslim extremists in 

   

  Tunisia,

   

  Egypt

  , 

  Libya, and now Syria.  At odds with the West for some time now, for supporting dictators who have outlawed, jailed and oppressed them, for exporting decadence and poisoning the minds of believers, especially in the age of global communication and social media; as a consequence, Muslim extremists have in turn been a chief exporter of terrorism.  Enter the Arab Spring
   
  , which began in Tunisia 18 December 2010

  ,
   presented a golden opportunity to further reduce threats emanating from the Middle East.  Through 
  riots, and civil wars in the Arab world
  ,
   rulers have been forced from power in 
  Tunisia,
   
  Egypt
  , 
  Libya, and Yemen; civil uprisings 
  in 
  Bahrain and 
  rebels in 
  Syria;
   
  major protests in Algeria,
   
  Iraq, Jordan,
   
  Kuwait, Morocco, and
   
  Sudan; and minor protests 
  elsewhere
   in Mauritania,
   
  Oman, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Western Sahara, the Palestinian Authority and Kosovo.
    In key countries where these unrests took place, Muslim extremists seem to take control

   

  in Tunisia, in Libya, in Egypt (unsuccessfully as of Ju

  ne 30

  , 2013

   when the vast majority of Egyptians rejected the Muslim Brotherhood

   ) and now underway in Syria.  Muslim extremists, as common wisdom goes, are a breeding ground for terrorism, so why not 
   turn 
  these countries
   over to Islamists and other angry 
  groups
  , e.g., Syria rebels, 
  with the goal/hope
   that this will satisfy them (their hunger for power, their pockets and their morale)
   and will
   keep them busy
   savoring and maintaining their new-found glory and a
  way from the US and Europe (UK,
   
  France, Germany, etc.)
  .
    Muslim extremists out of the picture.

All of this may make sense from the West point of view, but it incompetently and erroneously ignores the varying interests of the people in all of 

the 

region's countries, 

and 

the sectarian nature of many of these countries.  The Muslim Brotherhood is an excellent case in point, having them in control of a given nation may indeed dry them out of terrorists seeking revenge against the West

 , which is

 introducing all sorts of ideas and lifestyles that run contrary to where they desire their societies to be, an Islamic one based on Sharia'a law, but the vast majority of people in said countries seek a different future for themselves, their children and grandchildren.  In Tunisia, in Libya, in Egypt and now in Syria, that is precisely the case.  Thus 

the mess that is 

demonstrations, protests, riots and even civil wars will continue and break out unexpectedly in new areas.

At bottom is a poignant picture of a US marine about that mess.

Above is my outline of some of the facts behind the current mess in the Middle East

 , a chaotic quagmire that may benefit in the short run misguided objectives, but in the long run benefiting no one in particular, and throughout it all devastating to the quality of life and aspirations of the masses.  B

elow is the chart, article, 

and related 

letter that shed 

further fascinating

 light on Middle East mess.

Hussein

The Middle East, explained in one (sort of terrifying) chart

By Max Fisher, Published: August 26 at 12:42 pm

What could be simpler than the Middle East? A well-known Egyptian blogger who writes under the pseudonym The Big Pharaoh put together this chart laying out the region’s rivalries and alliances. He’s kindly granted me permission to post it, so that Americans might better understand the region. The joke is that it’s not a joke; this is actually pretty accurate.

Spend a few minutes staring at this and you will either have a seizure or actually comprehend the Middle East. Egypt is represented by the “MB” (Muslim Brotherhood) and “Sisi” for military leader Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi. (Courtesy The Big Pharaoh)

There are rivals who share mutual enemies, allies who back opposite sides of the same conflict, conflicting interests and very strange bedfellows. There are two categories of countries: the ones that meddle (the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Israel) and the ones that are meddled with (Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories). Each of the former is pushing for a different outcome in each of the latter, falling in and out of cooperation and competition. And that long-running interference is an important part of why conflict persists.

It’s all kind of a scramble. The Big Pharaoh writes: “I keep on updating this chart because every time I look at it I discover that I've missed an arrow. That’s how complicated it is.”

The chart is a spin-off of the most amazing letter to the editor ever written, which appeared in Thursday’s Financial Times. It also explained the entire Middle East, in a few short sentences. Here they are:

• Sir, Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad!
• Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.
• But Gulf states are pro-Sisi! Which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood!
• Iran is pro-Hamas, but Hamas is backing Muslim Brotherhood!
• Obama is backing Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas is against the U.S.!
• Gulf states are pro-U.S. But Turkey is with Gulf states against Assad; yet Turkey is pro-Muslim Brotherhood against General Sisi. And General Sisi is being backed by the Gulf states!

Welcome to the Middle East and have a nice day.
KN Al-Sabah,
London EC4, U.K.

Update: Some readers have raised a few fair quibbles with the chart. The biggest is that it’s not totally accurate to say that Israel supports Syrian rebels; although they certainly don’t care for Assad and have previously bombed Syrian weapons and nuclear installations, they’re not exactly rooting for a Libya-style rebel takeover, either. And al-Qaeda doesn't just hate the Assad regime, it also hates the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others. All of which helps to drive home that the Middle East is even more complicated than it appears on this already crazy-complicated chart.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/26/the-middle-east-explained-in-one-sort-of-terrifying-chart/

A US naval officer who did not reveal his identity.

-- 

Our world today, close-minded East and unseeing West.

hussein.cairo@gmail.com

http://husseinamin45.blogspot.com/